A Year Later: The Third Wave, Vaccines Available, and Where Are We Now?

I launched my boat on Friday. Last year the boat launches were all delayed due to the COVID 19 restrictions. The water is still very cold, but I am quite happy to have our boat back in the water.

It has been a year. On March 21, 2020 I felt compelled to write a blog post as I struggled to understand whether COVID 19 was a serious reality or was being overblown.^[1] At that time everything was shut down. We were all locked away in our homes but there had been just 12 confirmed cases in Kent County. None of us really knew what to expect or what was going to come. The experts (especially the Imperial College report) predicted 1.1 million deaths in the United States unless we did things like we had never done before. We did them. 

So, a year later where are we?  In the United States we have had documented:

• 31,306,928 cases of COVID 19
• 562,296 deaths attributed to COVID 19

It appears that the Imperial College report was correct. Our country did a lot. And with this we still had almost 600k deaths and we are not yet to the end of this.

This week I read the report from our health system about our current status. This made me feel like I should write something more. Here is what bothered me:

• We are firmly in a 3^rd wave. On Thursday April 15, 2021 Spectrum Health did 2537 COVID PCR tests with 21.1% of the tests being positive. This is one of the highest percent positive reports we have ever had.
• They reported 282 patients hospitalized in a Spectrum Health Hospital.
• In the Grand Rapids area, Spectrum Health had 61 patients with COVID in an ICU.
• The demographic has shifted for this 3^rd wave. It is hitting younger persons and they are seeing an increase in seriously ill pediatric cases.
• Almost 1/3 of the patients who are being seen in the Emergency Department are being seen for COVID or COVID like symptoms.
• At the same time, they have now reached a point where the capacity to give vaccines is more than the demand. That means that people can get a vaccine if they want one (or would be willing to get one).

People don’t seem to be as worried or upset this time.  Maybe we are just used to all of this? Maybe we are putting confidence in the vaccines? 

There is a disconnect and it seems odd to me. A year ago, there were 12 cases in Kent County and Sarah and I were locking ourselves away in our house. We got out the card table and set up a puzzle to pass the time.  We didn’t go anywhere. The 1^st wave fortunately was not too bad for West Michigan. 

The second wave hit, and things were a little bit more open. Nonetheless people seemed to understand how serious it was. By then most of us knew people who had become seriously ill or who had died. Many of us got COVID and the experience even without hospitalization was not something we ever wanted to go through again.

Now the third wave has hit, and people seem to have become a lot more lax. I walk through the store and see variable use of masks. The parking lots at bars and restaurants seem very full. I can remember feeling concerned in November when the test positivity rate was more than 10%. Now it is more than 20%. And yet I am not hearing the alarms ringing like I did before.

At the same time, we have reached a point where the health system has vaccines to give but not people to give them to. 

Last year we dreamed about the hope of having a vaccine available. Maybe then it would make this nightmare go away. We had hopes that if we got enough people vaccinated the rate of infections would drop off. We hoped we would reach “herd immunity.” We just needed the scientists to somehow figure it out and get us all a vaccine.  

They did it.

What about the vaccines? There have been some interesting articles recently about effectiveness.  One report looked at the effectiveness in healthcare and other essential workers.^[2] The volunteers in that study did a nasal swab every single week. The idea was to detect not just symptomatic infection but any evidence of infection. They found an 80% risk reduction (compared to those who were not vaccinated) after the 1^st shot, and a 90% risk reduction after the 2^nd shot. For those who did have a COVID infection detected after having been vaccinated the vast majority had no symptoms or only minimal symptoms. 

Another report looked on a population level at the odds of getting COVID in the US after getting vaccinated.^[3] If you have been vaccinated you have these odds:

• 0.008% chance of getting symptomatic COVID
• 0.00056% chance of getting sick enough to be hospitalized due to COVID
• 0.00001% chance of dying from COVID

Those are really encouraging statistics. 

How does that compare to other things in life?  You have a lifetime risk of:^[4]

• 0.94% of dying in a car accident
• 1.02% of dying due to an opiod overdose
• 0.009% of dying in an aircraft accident
• 0.00055% of dying by being struck by lightning

The vaccines work.

What about harm from the vaccines?  Let’s face it. You might have some symptoms from the vaccine. The CDC reports that about 10-15% of people who get vaccinated have some side effect. These are most commonly arm soreness, fatigue or body aches. A smaller number of people get low grade fevers or nausea. The majority of these symptoms resolve completely within a day or so.  With any vaccine there is a risk of a serious side effect.  Fortunately, the number of people with serious reactions has remained low.  The current rate of experiencing a serious adverse effect from the COVID vaccine is about 0.005%.^[5]  

We are having a third wave of COVID infections and deaths. I wondered how that compares to the 1918/1918 influenza pandemic my grandfather lived through.

This graph shows that they went through three distinct waves. Fortunately, the pandemic eventually resolved and then they were into the “roaring 20s”.  

Our graph for the state of Michigan is here:^[6]

It looks very similar. We are not however through our 3^rd wave yet.  I sincerely hope that our third wave deaths don’t go as high or higher than the other waves. 

What am I saying?

1. COVID is real and continues to be a big problem.
2. It is disturbing to see a very large 3^rd wave hitting Michigan.
3. It bothers me to think of children becoming seriously ill. I sincerely hope and pray that COVID does not become a big issue in children.
4. Vaccinations are available.  They work. 
5. The vaccines create real hope that we can get past this.
6. If you have not yet been vaccinated, please do so. They are available. They work. 
7. Continue to be careful. There is a LOT of COVID in our community. The risk now is as high or higher than ever. Please be careful.

I really hope that our COVID graph tails off. I hope that with mass vaccination and time we will get past this. Maybe then we can move into our own “roaring 20’s.” I am so ready to move on. I am ready to be able to be together in groups again. I am ready to go linger in a coffee shop. I am ready for our own version of the 20’s to start. One hundred years ago it was fast cars, jazz music and flapper dresses? Anyone up for that now?

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^[1] https://manmedicineandmike.com/is-it-really-worth-all-the-fuss/

^[2] https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/p0329-COVID-19-Vaccines.html

^[3] https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/09/health/covid-vaccines-adverse-reaction-rare-trnd/index.html

^[4] https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortality-risk

^[5] https://www.latimes.com/projects/covid-19-vaccine-safety-side-effects-risks-reactions/

^[6] https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163_98173—,00.html